It is remarkably daunting to deal with something as complex as Afghanistan within the confines of a blog…which is why some blogs have what are essentially articles and have turned into online news sources, a development that I do not have in mind at all for this blog.
Thoughts on Afghanistan:
Election: The results are not final, and they may not be for some time still. Incumbent president Hamid Karzai is in the lead with something approaching 50%, Abdullah Abdullah (a man so nice, they named him twice) has roughly 33%, with the rest split among several candidates (including Ashraf Ghani, the darling of the West, who got maybe 3%, all urban intellectuals). A candidate must get 50% in order to win, otherwise the top two vote-getters go to a run-off election to be held probably in mid-October. Counting is going very slowly for some areas, including those that were likely to support Karzai. I’ve put my name in for election observation if there is a 2nd round.
Fraud/Intimidation: There are some fairly serious allegations of fraud that the electoral complaint commission is investigating, including some that may be enough to invalidate enough of Karzai’s votes to force a run-off. The complaint commission has been sequestered while it does its investigation, and is relatively independent. What isn’t clear is what legal authority it actually has, and what effect it’s findings may have in terms of enforcement. It may be that they invalidate scores of votes that could change the election outcome, but none of the three branches of government pays any attention. There was some serious political violence during the election, but what was more meaningful was intimidation by not only the Taliban, but also by the central government in opposition strongholds, both of which acted to depress voter turnout…oh BTW, there is no reliable registry of voters, so turnout is anyone’s guess.
Conflict: The security situation is not good. Proper implementation of US counter-insurgency strategy requires many more troops than are even being debated for the future, so capable/professional Afghan troops are a necessity. The economy is beyond terrible, including in areas with limited or no conflict at the present. It remains to be seen what impact the Pakistan military’s operations against Taliban/-related elements in FATA and Waziristan will have.
So what: There is something of an ethnic dimension to be concerned about — Karzai is Pashtun, and they are concentrated in the south and all along the border with Pakistan; A2 is part Tajik, and they’re concentrated in the north along the border with the ‘Stans. There are other ethnic groups, of course. The already-weak legitimacy and capabilities of the central government will take a HUGE hit in the event that a Karzai victory is seen as fraudulent. Karzai is not the savior of Afghanistan. He is increasingly viewed as autocratic and corrupt, and his recent rapprochement with such notorius warlords as Rashid Dostum (from the north/Uzbek area) is alarming.
The Vietnam analogy is not really appropriate, nor for that matter are the British colonial and Soviet experiences. So far, there isn’t that sense in the population of occupation, in fact for many the problem is the lack of security presence by ISAF or Afghan troops; drone attacks on civilian populations are quite counter-productive, as they are in Pakistan. To the extent that ISAF troops are perceived to be occupiers and the government is perceived to be illegitimate/corrupt, then the Vietnam analogy fits a bit better. Another difference between now and those thens is the development and reconstruction work that is going on, activities that no foreign military force has ever done.